The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the delayed September jobs report this Thursday, the first major indicator to drop after the shutdown froze federal data collection for weeks. Real earnings will follow on Friday, restoring a key inflation companion metric that couldn’t be released without the missing payrolls data.
During the shutdown, only September CPI went out (because Social Security calculations required it), leaving the Fed and markets flying blind. Economists now expect Thursday’s jobs report to include only nonfarm payrolls, since the unemployment rate requires a separate household survey that cannot be reconstructed retroactively.
But uncertainty still looms: the Commerce Department and BEA haven’t issued revised schedules yet, and some October data (notably CPI) may never be compiled at all due to the in-person collection methods BLS uses. Analysts say the backlog will create a “data dump” in the coming weeks as agencies scramble to catch up.
Economists expect the Fed will still have the September, October, and November jobs reports in hand before its Dec. 9–10 policy meeting, where officials have hinted (but not promised) a possible rate cut. Until the revised calendar is finalized, though, Wall Street is bracing for more uncertainty — and watching closely for the next batch of numbers to clear the fog.
